https://doi.org/10.37955/cs.v6i3.275
Received August 14, 2021 / Approved March, 23 2022 Pages: 102-118
eISSN: 2600-5743
Analysis of the "National
Development Plan 2017-2021 for a
lifetime" and its implications for
the economic development of
Ecuador
Análisis del “Plan nacional de desarrollo 2017-2021 toda
una vida” y su implicancia en el desarrollo económico del
Ecuador
Byron Oviedo Bayas
Universidad TĂ©cnica Estatal de Quevedo, Quevedo-Ecuador, boviedo@uteq.edu.ec,
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5366-5917
Feliberto Fernando Guerra Cuenca
Universidad TĂ©cnica Estatal de Quevedo, Master's Program in Local Development,
Quevedo, Ecuador, fguerrac@uteq.edu.ec; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5967-2229
Marlon Astudillo Lindao
Universidad TĂ©cnica Estatal de Quevedo, marlon.astudillo2016@uteq.edu.ec
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6064-2617
Xiomara Vaca Quiñonez
Universidad TĂ©cnica Estatal de Quevedo, xiomara.vaca2016@uteq.edu.ec,
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9692-2311
ABSTRACT
Ecuador has gone through a series of stages in the construction of a
Nation State with a better capacity to sustain a higher level of quality
of life for its inhabitants. In the global context, the planning and
management of a country's resources must be guided by the
development policies that economic science provides in the theories
put forward, some of which Ecuador has addressed with a series of
social repercussions. The National Program of Good Living whose
role is to create an economic, political and social planning at the
service of the human being expands its more humanistic reason in its
theoretical structures and takes the name of "National Development
Plan 2017-2021 All a Life". The main arguments set out in the plan,
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the policies it addresses, the goals to be achieved and statistical data
in its first two years of implementation will be presented to
determine the trend of compliance with its objectives.
RESUMEN
Ecuador ha vivido una serie de etapas en la construcciĂłn de un
Estado NaciĂłn con mejor capacidad para sustentar un nivel superior
en la calidad de vida de sus habitantes. En el contexto mundial la
planificaciĂłn y gestiĂłn de los recursos de un paĂ­s deben estar
direccionados con las polĂ­ticas de desarrollo que la ciencia econĂłmica
dispone en las teorĂ­as plateadas, las cuales el Ecuador abordĂł algunas
con series repercusiones sociales. El programa Nacional del Buen Vivir
cuyo rol es crear una planificaciĂłn econĂłmica, polĂ­tica y social al
servicio del ser humano expande su razón más humanística en sus
estructuras teĂłricas y toma el nombre de "Plan Nacional de Desarrollo
2017-2021 Toda una Vida". Se presentará de primera fuente los
principales argumentos expuestos en el plan, las polĂ­ticas que aborda,
las metas a alcanzar y datos estadísticos en sus dos primeros años de
ejecuciĂłn para determinar la tendencia del cumplimiento de sus
objetivos.
Keywords / Keywords
Good living, Plan, State, Nation
Buen vivir, Plan, Estado, NaciĂłn
Introduction
Ecuador has gone through a series of stages in the construction of a
Nation State with a better capacity to sustain a higher level of quality
of life for its inhabitants. In the global context, the planning and
management of a country's resources must be guided by the
development policies that economic science provides in the theories
put forward, some of which Ecuador has addressed with a series of
social repercussions.
By studying this Ecuadorian Plan, which has been implemented since
2007 until the culmination of Lenin Moreno's presidential term in
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Ecuador, we will seek and intend to provide empirical evidence on its
execution. It will show how to plan the available resources, know the
structure, laws, instruments and methodology to measure the results,
and that the same are in pursuit of the development of society.
This axis positions the human being as a subject of rights throughout
the life cycle, and promotes the implementation of the Good Living
Regime. Public policies and services that ensure availability,
accessibility, quality and adaptability on the fundamental rights of
people in the Ecuadorian territory.
According to Salazar (2012), planning used to focus primarily on
"land acquisition"; today it refers, among other things, to urban
design and community project of the population in which they will live,
adequate financing and also social planning of the way of life.
Within this objective there are 17 policies with 43 goals, including areas
such as poverty, employment, access to basic services, inequality and
security. Of the 43 established goals, 19 are in red alert, goals such as
poverty reduction or employment generation, 3 goals are in yellow, 7
goals are in green and 14 goals have no information, i.e. no figures
have been generated.
This goal contains important targets such as "eradicating" extreme
poverty, with a target of 3.5% by 2021; increasing from 53% to 95%
the number of households with their own decent housing that are in
extreme poverty by 2021; reducing from 10.4% to 7.6% the youth
unemployment rate between 18 and 29 years of age by 2021; or
improving the response time in comprehensive emergency care by
2021, among some of the targets of Goal 1 that have not been met.
The availability of these research tools will provide first-hand
knowledge of the progress of the goals set for the country's
development.
Also in the analysis of this can be established whether the policies of
the current governments are co-integrated for the achievement of
development. Less developed countries implement these policies
because they are of vital importance for the various problems of
society.
Materials and Methods
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In any evaluation, three basic questions must first be answered: what
do we want to evaluate? How are we going to evaluate? and Who will
be the evaluator?
Our object of study is to evaluate the Toda una vida National
Development Plan and its influence on the country's economic
development -what to evaluate-. In order to achieve this objective, a
mixed approach has been determined; on the one hand qualitative,
since it does not intend to explain structures, but to know the action,
that is, how the evaluation process has developed from the
perspective of those responsible for the evaluation, and on the other
deductive (Vásquez, 2008), since from the general considerations on
economic growth we intend to arrive at specific issues on structural
change or change in the national society.
A qualitative methodology is used to capture the origin, process and
nature of these meanings that emerge from the symbolic interaction
between individuals. From this symbolic interaction or interpretation that
individuals make of reality, a meaning shared by the participants is born.
This study is supported by various techniques to analyze a social
reality. As our object of study is complex and very broad, it was
proposed that as the research progresses, new realities will emerge.
For this reason, the open-ended interview was chosen.
Techniques to be used In accordance with the objectives set out, we
plan to use a quantitative-inferential approach based on econometric
techniques, with a view to finding the main behavioral relationships
and interrelationships of the variables.
In addition, the data will be standardized; standard deviations are
made in the series to make them stationary. Subsequently,
standardized time series of the variables to be studied are crossed.
Data Management; it will be carried out through the collection of
information, data processing.
Statistical analysis; it will be carried out through the construction and
analysis, data standardization, analysis of contingency tables,
construction of indicators, data analysis.
Results
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a) Reduce the multidimensional poverty rate from 35.1% to
27.4% by 2021.
According to Carrasco & Marcela (2011), the MPI attempts to capture
aggregate deprivations in health, education and standard of living,
the same dimensions included in the Human Development Index
(HDI), through 10 indicators on nutrition, infant mortality, years of
schooling, school enrollment, cooking fuel, sanitation, water,
electricity, flooring and assets. It takes into account both the
incidence and intensity of poverty as the product of the proportion of
people who are poor in various dimensions (incidence) times the
average number of deprivations experienced by each poor household
(intensity).
b) Eradicate the incidence of extreme income poverty,
reducing it from 8.7% to 3.5% by 2021.
Graph 1. Extreme poverty by income
We can observe that the national extreme poverty line decreased
from 15.3 percent in 2007 to 8.5 percent in 2018. There was an
increase of 0.5 percent from 2017 to 2018.
c) Poverty by unsatisfied basic needs
Poverty by Unsatisfied Basic Needs (UBN) is a multidimensional
poverty measure developed in the 1980s by the Economic
Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC). The
method encompasses five dimensions and within each dimension
there are indicators that measure deprivation:
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Graph 2. Multidimensional Poverty Index
In December 2018, the multidimensional poverty index was 18.7 points at
the national level; 10.3 in the urban area, and 36.4 in the rural sector.
Objective 2: To affirm interculturality and plurinationality,
revaluing diverse identities.
We are a state that recognizes plurinationality and celebrates
diversity, in an inclusive society with collective rights and equal
conditions. Through intercultural dialogue, we promote the
coexistence of urban cultures, peoples and nationalities, LBGTI
groups and migrants.
For Giuseppe (2010), the struggle for plurinationality means, above
all, to recognize oneself and others across cultural boundaries. It
means building interculturality through the recognition of differences.
This leads to the inclusion and legal recognition of all forms of
organization of society and life that until then had been expelled from
institutions and viewed with suspicion and mistrust.
It is based on 7 and 17 goals, of which 13 goals have no information, 3
goals are in red traffic light and one goal is in green traffic light.
It is clear that this objective is of minimal importance for the current
government, since not only do we not have statistics for the
evaluation of this objective, but it should also be emphasized that the
cultural sphere is one of the sectors that has been hit the hardest
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within the fiscal austerity programmed by the government, with a
budget reduction of 26%.
Like the previous objective, this one has a red traffic light.
a) Increase the percentage of educational institutions of
intercultural bilingual jurisdiction, improve educational services,
net enrollment rates, increase the participatory role of national
ethnic groups, eradicate discrimination within the educational
field.
Graph 3. Final consumption expenditure (FCF) per capita (p-c)
according to education sectors. Period 2007-2013, 2007 dollars.
Source: INEC, Cuenta Satélite de Servicios de Educación 2007 - 2013,
population projection to 2015.
In the 2007-2013 period, the government's per capita GCF increased
23%, from $149 to $184 dollars. Meanwhile, household GCF
remained constant over the same period.
Objective 3: Guarantee the rights of nature for current and
future generations.
Nature faces imminent risks, such as climate change. To reduce
environmental vulnerability, it is urgent to take actions for the
responsible management of the natural heritage, its terrestrial and
marine biodiversity, ensuring conditions for the regeneration of life
cycles, with special emphasis on water.
Fernandez (2000) Ecology or the protection of nature are nowadays
principles generally accepted by most contemporary societies and
tasks that any State of rights assumes as its own.
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Nature faces imminent risks, such as climate change. To reduce
environmental vulnerability, it is urgent to take actions for the
responsible management of the natural heritage, its terrestrial and
marine biodiversity, ensuring conditions for the regeneration of life
cycles, with special emphasis on water.
This objective has 12 goals, of which 6 goals have no information, 2
goals are in red traffic light, 2 goals are in yellow traffic light and 2
goals are in green traffic light.
The 6 goals that do not have information depend to some extent on
the decentralized autonomous governments.
Under this analysis, goal 3 is with a red traffic light. It is necessary to
emphasize that none of the goals raised have to do with aspects related
to global warming or mining extraction, which is a major source of
degradation and wear of the country's natural resources (Diego, 2018).
At the national level, the average unit cost per m3 for the provision of
potable water service at the household level is 0.49 cents. The highest
rate is found in the province of Santo Domingo, where the cost is $2.
a) Increase the number of municipalities that treat water discharges
before discharging them into the environment by 2021.
Graph 4. Final disposal of untreated wastewater 2015 - 2017.
Source: AME-INEC. Drinking Water and Sewerage Management
Registry, 2015 - 2017.
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Analysis: In 2017, 60.3% of municipalities dispose untreated
wastewater in rivers, while 38.4% in streams. An increase in the
disposal in streams is observed.
b) Increase the percentage of wastewater with adequate treatment by
2021.
Graph 5. Wastewater entering GADM Treatment Plants
Analysis: Of the total water distributed nationwide, 23.3% enters
treatment plants. The Amazon is the region with the highest
percentage with 50%.
Axis 2: Economy at the Service of Society
Our economic system is social and solidary. The economy is at the
service of the population to guarantee rights and in it the public,
popular private and solidarity subsystems interact, all three require
incentives and regulation by the public apparatus.
According to Duñanturria & Eusebio (2011) All peoples in any space
or historical moment have needed to develop an economic base but
the economy was a means to develop other ends and not a means at
the service of society. Therefore, it is necessary to resituate the
economy in its rightful place, it has to be a means or social
instrument aimed at achieving a society free of exploitation and
oppression.
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Objective 4: Consolidate the sustainability of the social and
solidarity-based economic system and strengthen dollarization.
The sustainability of the Ecuadorian economic system must bring
confidence to domestic and foreign investors, it seeks to maintain
dollarization, improve regulatory capacities and promote the right
conditions for trade, all with the support of public and private and
community actors SEMPLADES (2017).
This objective has 10 established goals, of which 2 goals are green, 4
goals are yellow, 3 goals are red and 1 goal is blue.
In this objective there are goals such as decreasing the deficit of the
Non-Financial Public Sector to at least -0.41% in 2021 or increasing the
collection of direct taxes in relation to the total collection of taxes to
2021, both are in red color, this last goal is in contrast with the letter of
intent signed with the International Monetary Fund that emphasizes
indirect taxes, since in the present National Development Plan it is
established to increase the collection of direct taxes, there is no
percentage. Under this analysis, this objective has a yellow traffic
light. (ISIP, 2019)
Graph 6. Evolution of real GDP per capita
Source: Central Bank (ECB, 2019)
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Graph 7. As of January 2019, the trade balance shows a monthly
deficit of $248 million and a cumulative deficit of $763 million.
Source: Central Bank (ECB, 2019)
Objective 5: Promote productivity and competitiveness for
sustainable economic growth in a redistributive and
supportive manner
Produce more and with better quality to give way to a solidarity
economy that integrates more actors in the process, where citizens
are the main citizens.
This objective has 21 established goals, of which 4 goals are green, 2
goals are yellow, 5 goals are red and 10 goals are blue.
Although it is currently an objective that is under discussion, since it
establishes parameters on productivity, the goals of this objective are
under construction or there is no information for its evaluation. One
of the goals establishes "to improve the National Productivity Index
by 2021", it does not establish how or what is the exact goal for 2021.
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Among the most relevant goals in this objective is to increase the
adequate employment rate from 41.2% to 47.9% by 2021 and to
improve the non-oil trade balance by 2021, whose results are in red
traffic lights.
Under this analysis, this objective has a red color, since 5 of the 21
established goals are in red color and 10 goals have no information or
the goals are under construction. (ISIP, 2019)
increase the adequate employment rate from 41.2% to 47.9% by 2021.
Graph 8. Labor sector in Ecuador
Source: National Institute of Statistics and Census, National Urban
Employment and Unemployment Survey, ENEMDU.
Increase the value of non-traditional exports from US$295 to
US$375 per capita by 2021.
Graph 9. evolution of ecuadorian exports
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Source: ECB, Monthly Statistical Bulletin as of February 2019.
Objective 6: Develop productive and environmental capacities
to achieve food sovereignty and Good Rural Living.
There is no good living without rural development. It is necessary to
guarantee access to the means of production; the maintenance of
water, the diversity of local products and their knowledge, and the
provision of basic services in conditions of dignity.
Under this analysis, this objective has a red traffic light, since 4 of the
18 established goals are in red and 13 goals have no information or
are under construction.
a) Reduce the incidence of rural income poverty from 38.2% to 31.9%
by 2021.
Graph 10. Poverty by income in Ecuador
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Source: ENEMDU
Axis 3: More society, better State.
It encourages participation in our society, which demands a State with
better intervention capabilities. It recognizes that society is the
guiding vertex of social development and that the State cannot be
isolated or separated from it. The challenge will be to consolidate an
active and participatory society hand in hand with a State that,
through democratic public management, will guide us towards a
society committed to the collective management of public affairs.
Objective 7: Encourage a participatory society, with a State
that is close to the citizenry.
Promote the autonomous organization of society, with better and
greater citizen participation, encouraging a dialogue that goes beyond
the political sphere.
We promote freedoms (expression, thought, worship, conscience,
association) to build a society based on associativity and
interpersonal trust, with a state that guarantees rights.
This objective has 17 established goals, of which 13 goals are blue
(under construction or no information available), 2 goals are yellow
and 2 goals are green.
The characteristic of this objective is citizen participation, which is an
important element of democracy, most of the proposed goals are
under construction, goals such as strengthening the scope and
commitment of citizen participation in the management of the
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Ecuadorian State: increasing the percentage of registered social
organizations and strengthening their organizational capacities by
2021 or increasing the degree of institutional consolidation of the
entities of the Executive function by 2021, do not have clear goals or
indicators that allow their follow-up.
Under this analysis, this objective has a red traffic light, since of the
17 established goals, 13 have no information or are under
construction.
Objective 8: Promote transparency and co-responsibility for a new
social ethic.
We fight head-on and relentlessly to eradicate corruption in its various
manifestations and at all levels, both in the public and private sectors.
This implies prevention (education in values and co-responsibility, with
a State that guarantees rights).
This objective has 3 established goals, where these goals are in blue, i.e.,
under construction or there is no information.
Important objective that has been established with goals that do not
have adequate information to help monitoring and proper evaluation,
goals such as improving the indices of perception of discrimination
and exclusion to 2021, improving the indices of citizen perception of
corruption in the public and private sectors: improving the Public
Transparency Index (Citizen Dimension) to 2021 and improving the
indices of citizen perception of corruption in the public and private
sectors: improving the Public Transparency Index (Institutional
Dimension) to 2021, do not have official information.
Under this analysis, this objective has a red traffic light, since none of
the three established goals has information.
Objective 9: Guarantee sovereignty and peace, and
strategically position the country in the region and the
world.
Ecuador is a sovereign and peaceful state that actively contributes to
the consolidation of Latin American integration processes.
We present ourselves to the world in both regional and global spaces
and work towards the objectives of the National Development Plan,
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prioritizing the benefit of Ecuadorians, both inside and outside the
country.
This objective has 8 goals, of which 2 goals are green, 1 goal is yellow,
3 goals are red and 2 goals are blue, which have no information or are
under construction.
Although this objective positions areas of sovereignty, the two goals
that are met are related to tourism, increasing the number of tourism
jobs from 137,647 to 202,762 by 2021 and increasing the number of
tourists from 1.4 million to 2 million people by 2021.
But goals such as improving the non-oil trade balance with
neighboring countries by 2021, despite the fact that there are no figures
that allow us to follow up, not even the word "improve" has been met,
and this goal is in red.
From a critical point of view, this objective does not have goals that reflect
the true meaning of the proposal, since it does not adequately establish
the "strategic positioning of the country in the region and the world".
Conclusions
In short, the balance of the National Development Plan "Toda una
Vida" is negative, of the 149 goals established 39 are red or there is
non-compliance, especially in the areas of poverty, employment,
housing and economy, in other important areas such as environment,
the goals are not clear or are not structured. What is worrisome is
that 75 goals have no information or are under construction, which
implies that the government has not given them the importance that
national planning deserves.
The National Development Plan is a living, changing document;
apparently during these two years there has not been sufficient
interest on the part of the government to update goals or improve
indicators, despite the fact that the President of the Republic
mentions the importance of planning the country at every
international event. It is evident that what the constitution
establishes, where the National Development Plan is the tool that
links the budget execution with the development of the country
through plans, programs and projects included in the plan, is not
linked.
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It should be remembered that the planning cycle is established in
four main phases: preparation, implementation, monitoring and
evaluation, and it seems that the first phase has not yet been
completed.
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Diego, R. (2018). Evaluation of Ecuador's National Development
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